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dc.rights.licenseCC BY 3.0 Unportedger
dc.contributor.authorFaye, Babacar
dc.contributor.authorWebber, Heidi
dc.contributor.authorNaab, Jesse B.
dc.contributor.authorMacCarthy, Dilys S.
dc.contributor.authorAdam, Myriam
dc.contributor.authorEwert, Frank
dc.contributor.authorLamers, John P. A.
dc.contributor.authorSchleussner, Carl-Friedrich
dc.contributor.authorRuane, Alex
dc.contributor.authorGessner, Ursula
dc.contributor.authorHoogenboom, Gerrit
dc.contributor.authorBoote, Ken
dc.contributor.authorShelia, Vakhtang
dc.contributor.authorSaeed, Fahad
dc.contributor.authorWisser, Dominik
dc.contributor.authorHadir, Sofia
dc.contributor.authorLaux, Patrick
dc.contributor.authorGaiser, Thomas
dc.description.abstractTo reduce the risks of climate change, governments agreed in the Paris Agreement to limit global temperature rise to less than 2.0 °C above pre-industrial levels, with the ambition to keep warming to 1.5 °C. Charting appropriate mitigation responses requires information on the costs of mitigating versus associated damages for the two levels of warming. In this assessment, a critical consideration is the impact on crop yields and yield variability in regions currently challenged by food insecurity. The current study assessed impacts of 1.5 °C versus 2.0 °C on yields of maize, pearl millet and sorghum in the West African Sudan Savanna using two crop models that were calibrated with common varieties from experiments in the region with management reflecting a range of typical sowing windows. As sustainable intensification is promoted in the region for improving food security, simulations were conducted for both current fertilizer use and for an intensification case (fertility not limiting). With current fertilizer use, results indicated 2% units higher losses for maize and sorghum with 2.0 °C compared to 1.5 °C warming, with no change in millet yields for either scenario. In the intensification case, yield losses due to climate change were larger than with current fertilizer levels. However, despite the larger losses, yields were always two to three times higher with intensification, irrespective of the warming scenario. Though yield variability increased with intensification, there was no interaction with warming scenario. Risk and market analysis are needed to extend these results to understand implications for food security.
dc.publisherBristol : IOP Publishing
dc.relation.ispartofseriesEnvironmental Research Letters, Volume 13, Issue 3-
dc.subject1.5 °C
dc.subjectClimate change
dc.subjectFood security
dc.subjectWest Africa
dc.titleImpacts of 1.5 versus 2.0 °c on cereal yields in the West African Sudan Savanna
dcterms.bibliographicCitation.journalTitleEnvironmental Research Letters-
Appears in Collections:Umweltwissenschaften

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