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Title: Consistent negative response of US crops to high temperatures in observations and crop models
Authors: Schauberger, B.Archontoulis, S.Arneth, A.Balkovic, J.Ciais, P.Deryng, D.Elliott, J.Folberth, C.Khabarov, N.Müller, C.Pugh, T.A.M.Rolinski, S.Schaphoff, S.Schmid, E.Wang, X.Schlenker, W.Frieler, K.
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Issue Date: 2017
Published in: Nature Communications Vol. 8 (2017)
Publisher: London : Nature Publishing Group
Abstract: High temperatures are detrimental to crop yields and could lead to global warming-driven reductions in agricultural productivity. To assess future threats, the majority of studies used process-based crop models, but their ability to represent effects of high temperature has been questioned. Here we show that an ensemble of nine crop models reproduces the observed average temperature responses of US maize, soybean and wheat yields. Each day >30 °C diminishes maize and soybean yields by up to 6% under rainfed conditions. Declines observed in irrigated areas, or simulated assuming full irrigation, are weak. This supports the hypothesis that water stress induced by high temperatures causes the decline. For wheat a negative response to high temperature is neither observed nor simulated under historical conditions, since critical temperatures are rarely exceeded during the growing season. In the future, yields are modelled to decline for all three crops at temperatures >30 °C. Elevated CO 2 can only weakly reduce these yield losses, in contrast to irrigation.
Keywords: crop; growing season; high temperature; maize; nonhuman; plant yield; simulation; soybean; temperature sensitivity; water stress; wheat; Glycine max; Triticum aestivum; Zea mays
DDC: 550
License: CC BY 4.0 Unported
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